Probabilistic assessment of container shipping route disruption costs from natural disasters – An application to the KIX Australia-New Zealand Service Line


This paper presents the findings of a study developing a methodological framework for the quantification of natural disasters’ disruptive impacts on the global container shipping network and the assessment of potential rerouting options. The natural disasters considered are earthquakes, storms and tsunamis. The global shipping network is modelled as a top-level network of nodes (terminals, and key logistical and transportation nodes) and links (shipping routes, at sea and inland). Each node’s probability of performance loss is assessed based on a combination of fault tree, hazard scenario tree and network flow analyses considering interdependences between physical systems (including infrastructure services networks) and operational systems. The proposed approach relies on an attacker-defender model combined to a cost-based container assignment model to assess routing and disruption costs and allow the identification of optimum alternative routing paths after a disruption. The paper then showcases the application of this methodology to the case study of the shipping routes associated to the KIX Australia-Asia Shipping line. The findings of this study are presented, additionally to disruption costs, as maps showing the probable loss of terminals’ performance in terms of container throughput, and in terms of loss of transmissivity capacity for hinterland links. Optimal alternative hinterland links and container terminal rerouting options are also proposed.

7th International Symposium on Transport Network Reliability